Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb74e26ce7a8e7b470864c333bb5857c18bbdd7bf109e84936f5dd4e56f04fd66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9907…c5aabacked Yes | 41c | 242.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…47c4backed No | 38c | 226.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 65c | 129.96$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 70c | 128.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 54c | 111.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f6…9874backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ab…cda4backed Yes | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 44.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c82…964cbacked No | 70c | 28.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 54c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 55c | 20.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $60 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $62 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $42 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.