Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cf3e01918c29d63993bf44fdb93c13e161b745433696b0e90673ed6ab22625d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe573…5d40backed No | 1c | 6,015$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 1c | 4,737$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,062$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…0454backed Yes | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,134$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 2c | 1,085$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…ebf5backed No | 71c | 984.73$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…1ca3backed No | 50c | 536$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…49fcbacked No | 50c | 533$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…5dd2backed No | 50c | 531$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 2c | 505$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…ca06backed Yes | 34c | 219.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…b483backed No | 71c | 202.29$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 62c | 171.35$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b0…7f24backed Yes | 80c | 140.58$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 54c | 136.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 18c | 121.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…0a7dbacked No | 66c | 111.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…a965backed No | 20c | 94.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea6…35d0backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…e1cbbacked Yes | 76c | 65.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ac…238fbacked Yes | 78c | 63.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39f…136abacked No | 62c | 59.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 44c | 52.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 36c | 51.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 77c | 46.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb55…5e8abacked No | 59c | 45.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05e…b181backed Yes | 61c | 32.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 38c | 30.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…752fbacked Yes | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $65 by end of January?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $60 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $62 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $42 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of January?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.