Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d45212ce3054c9b7cb3edbc4b1d68e2d8b84c93e9522a311039bfe403269464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 601.83$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.64 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 3c | 369.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 304.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 76c | 262$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 236.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 22c | 223.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 216.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 204.3$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked No | 79c | 201.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 195.74$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 17c | 180.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 79c | 180.65$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 20c | 177.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 158.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 24c | 147.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…35fcbacked Yes | 20c | 146.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 137$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 133.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 130.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 77c | 120.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 23c | 119.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 10c | 118.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 22c | 117.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 112.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 111.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 101.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 25c | 100.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…ff0bbacked No | 77c | 96.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 74c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 19c | 90.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 81.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 14c | 80.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 26c | 77.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 25c | 69.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 24c | 62.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 59.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 40.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 33.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 33.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 30.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 71c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf909…669ebacked No | 73c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…e39ebacked No | 74c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c7…18dbbacked No | 73c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 76c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 76c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.