TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x652d…46b3backed No1c1,619$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6461820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c782.95$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.599,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked No59c675.67$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes20c602.28$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.258,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No80c267.33$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.52,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes46c217.88$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.995,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes42c199.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9917358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes40c180$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10828737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes36c162.27$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.156543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes42c150.81$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0618337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.51,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No52c137$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.415,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No29c136.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.193,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes75c132.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.891,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c128.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes22c122.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9961929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c118.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.551,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes40c117.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.623435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes45c111.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.216134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No26c107.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.866,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c103.55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes42c95.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5240237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No75c94.2$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.731,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes22c90.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.92,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d1…6d42backed Yes44c89.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes35c87.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.991,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c86.76$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes35c80.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.182,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes52c80.31$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.672,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes39c79.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.191,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes38c77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.92,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No61c76.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6965353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes49c75.72$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.655437%20 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c73.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x17f4…db67backed Yes22c73.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.33837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+53.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes48c70.67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.091,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No41c69.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4281756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No79c66.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.292,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No20c65.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No59c65.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.330565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes60c61.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.312,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…a4d5backed No69c61.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425666.1%37 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes49c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.862,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes40c58.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8717644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No57c55.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.955,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.58240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9777…3761backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8442…3eddbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303426.5%9 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-43%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa52d…a95abacked No42c49.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.714951%25 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No56c49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4463757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes25c46.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3868645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed Yes66c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.291,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes33c39.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.852828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No70c36.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.891,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a49…59e0backed No77c35.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.442835.7%10 W · 18 L-7.2wins-0.26per pick61cpaid-32.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes31c34.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.735841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes56c33.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9624442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No61c33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c31.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.97,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No73c31.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8139951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1822945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d8…a908backed No44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf16…3a05backed No58c29.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8510667%71 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No65c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.064,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No58c26.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6cd…f8a1backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153315.2%5 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-74.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No61c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.253,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No72c24.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9750860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes43c24.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0916045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa657…31a1backed No65c23.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x608a…966bbacked No61c23.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.34761.7%29 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c23.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No66c22.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes56c22.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe985…8cc8backed No56c22.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.498325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No69c21.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No68c20.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.242,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.464960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.391,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No65c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No61c16.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.182,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…ab27backed Yes66c16.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61540%6 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No74c16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.841,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked No67c15.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3482742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.