Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5bf56e2f2a6f555052a73aa033b3d3ab8f1b977c52dbdf0d18ca5ff6970a9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,619$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 782.95$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked No | 59c | 675.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 602.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 267.33$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 217.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 40c | 180$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 36c | 162.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 42c | 150.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 137$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 136.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 132.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 128.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 22c | 122.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 118.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes | 40c | 117.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 45c | 111.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 107.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 103.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 42c | 95.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 94.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…6d42backed Yes | 44c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 35c | 87.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 86.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 35c | 80.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 52c | 80.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 38c | 77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 61c | 76.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 49c | 75.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 73.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…db67backed Yes | 22c | 73.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 48c | 70.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 41c | 69.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 66.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 65.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 59c | 65.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 60c | 61.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 69c | 61.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 40c | 58.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 55.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 42c | 49.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 25c | 46.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 36.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…59e0backed No | 77c | 35.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 31c | 34.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 56c | 33.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 31.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 73c | 31.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…a908backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 58c | 29.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 26.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cd…f8a1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 24.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 43c | 24.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…31a1backed No | 65c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 61c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 23.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 22.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 56c | 22.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 20.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 16.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…ab27backed Yes | 66c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 67c | 15.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.