NHL · resolved market
AHL: Manitoba Moose vs. Belleville Senators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d5ba263a85cf0c1215e72df4f6b9dae5281eb26288e3008e4e393edda17c33e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belleville Senatorsof Manitoba Moose, Belleville Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa578…6702backed Belleville Senators | 52c | 447.1$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.37 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…2b8fbacked Manitoba Moose | 47c | 321.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Manitoba Moose | 46c | 242.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Belleville Senators | 54c | 221.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.47 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Belleville Senators | 52c | 177.02$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Belleville Senators | 54c | 167.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.84 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Belleville Senators | 52c | 166.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Manitoba Moose | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Manitoba Moose | 46c | 120.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Manitoba Moose | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Manitoba Moose | 35c | 65.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Manitoba Moose | 45c | 64.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Belleville Senators | 53c | 60.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Manitoba Moose | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…e454backed Manitoba Moose | 46c | 43.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…b58bbacked Manitoba Moose | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…9a83backed Manitoba Moose | 46c | 40.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a5ffbacked Belleville Senators | 51c | 37.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Manitoba Moose | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Belleville Senators | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Belleville Senators | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Belleville Senators | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc3…ba8ebacked Manitoba Moose | 46c | 23.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Belleville Senators | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…0947backed Belleville Senators | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.