Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d9af56ad6ab600b6c068315451c7058a6af05049390afd3d8b7f4e88755569f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 53c | 1,290$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.09 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 11c | 1,107$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 55c | 1,088$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.23 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 709.8$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.49 | 427 | 25.8%110 W · 317 L | -34.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 54c | 670.25$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.68 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 13c | 459.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.66 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 24c | 412.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 19c | 410.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 1,035 | 41.6%431 W · 604 L | -33.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Yes | 74c | 410$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 28c | 278.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 254.91$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.82 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…6614backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 53c | 199.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 11c | 176.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.15 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 19c | 174.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…bbdabacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 42c | 145.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 42c | 145.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Yes | 59c | 136.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 58c | 131$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 30c | 116.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 28c | 114.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 49c | 84.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 82.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 27c | 78.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes | 41c | 66.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Yes | 48c | 56.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 38c | 50.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 729 | 44.2%322 W · 407 L | -29.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 66c | 35.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 1,126 | 46.3%521 W · 605 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Yes | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 488 | 67.8%331 W · 157 L | +68.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Yes | 75c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Yes | 72c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Yes | 71c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Yes | 72c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-05?this page
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?No won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.