Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8558d45e49fa86c5b915aec71ca7d01dfc5f855f9a0f2453b1131faa1d23f21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 1,555$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.8 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 1,236$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.32 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…1187backed Yes | 66c | 1,219$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 40c | 1,099$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.69 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes | 28c | 836.18$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.13 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 780.51$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 424 | 25.9%110 W · 314 L | -32.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 37c | 562$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.06 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 63c | 562$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.06 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 38c | 526.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 28c | 517.64$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.94 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 383.79$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 35c | 361.11$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.54 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked No | 34c | 323.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 26c | 308.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…306fbacked Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 35c | 249.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 1,109 | 46.2%512 W · 597 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 34c | 240.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Yes | 30c | 233.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked No | 59c | 222.79$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 37c | 213.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.79 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 35c | 212.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Yes | 42c | 190.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 44c | 153.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 35c | 149.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 299 | 17.4%52 W · 247 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 41c | 141.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 40c | 131.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 67c | 114.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 79c | 113.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 40c | 112.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 100.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 28c | 99.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 76c | 99.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 32c | 94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 32c | 84.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 1,101 | 49.7%547 W · 554 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 47c | 82.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked No | 54c | 76.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 75c | 75.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 67c | 73.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 50c | 67.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 48c | 63.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9761…9070backed Yes | 66c | 60.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 44c | 32.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,022 | 41.5%424 W · 598 L | -33.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…875bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d6…4af7backed Yes | 66c | 30.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 36c | 29.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…288ebacked No | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed No | 80c | 26.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 80c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 51c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-05?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-05?Yes won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.