CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db244481051ad128612ccecf7ee55e63a73f5450aa22feb366ac1a392c25910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof Nexus, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked Alliance | 55c | 2,536$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.12 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nexus | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Alliance | 69c | 499.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 1,629 | 44.8%730 W · 899 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd976…7636backed Nexus | 40c | 486.93$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Alliance | 69c | 428.68$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Nexus | 43c | 344.59$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.09 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Nexus | 44c | 265.93$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 601 | 43.1%259 W · 342 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Nexus | 44c | 265.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 443 | 44%195 W · 248 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nexus | 33c | 254.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Nexus | 44c | 245.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 547 | 43.7%239 W · 308 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nexus | 38c | 242$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…36fabacked Nexus | 12c | 223.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Alliance | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…441bbacked Nexus | 45c | 198.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Nexus | 45c | 187.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 2,645 | 51.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L | +21.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Nexus | 33c | 186.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Nexus | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 750 | 48.4%363 W · 387 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Alliance | 51c | 135.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Alliance | 69c | 125.24$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Nexus | 38c | 119.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Alliance | 57c | 98.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Nexus | 35c | 86.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…7823backed Nexus | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf120…ce3cbacked Nexus | 23c | 73.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nexus | 36c | 63.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Nexus | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 815 | 51.7%421 W · 394 L | +26.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Nexus | 50c | 51.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 231 | 50.6%117 W · 114 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Nexus | 36c | 50.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 967 | 43.5%421 W · 546 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nexus | 31c | 43.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…1d8dbacked Nexus | 47c | 42.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Nexus | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 395 | 40.3%159 W · 236 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa669…3115backed Nexus | 38c | 39.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd12…0b88backed Nexus | 51c | 39.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…ecc4backed Nexus | 44c | 36.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 188 | 41.5%78 W · 110 L | -19.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Alliance | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Alliance | 69c | 35.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,365 | 45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L | -58.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Nexus | 45c | 30.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Alliance | 50c | 26.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 434 | 37.6%163 W · 271 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed Alliance | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9092…0771backed Alliance | 60c | 19.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Alliance | 69c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 1 WinnerNexus won
- Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 2 WinnerAlliance won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.