NHL · resolved market
SHL: Timraa vs. Froelunda HC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db535e760ed3fdfcc69e46e07c45a1aad9519ff1294e111834a2ec24d8ab5de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Froelunda HCof Timraa, Froelunda HC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Timraa | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28f…5099backed Timraa | 45c | 202$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…d27cbacked Froelunda HC | 55c | 201$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1428…017cbacked Timraa | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde60…f5c3backed Froelunda HC | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…ee2fbacked Timraa | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Froelunda HC | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f0…fdf8backed Froelunda HC | 56c | 101.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Froelunda HC | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Froelunda HC | 54c | 86.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Froelunda HC | 55c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Froelunda HC | 55c | 79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…c162backed Froelunda HC | 53c | 69.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Froelunda HC | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Froelunda HC | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Froelunda HC | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Timraa | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Froelunda HC | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Froelunda HC | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Froelunda HC | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Froelunda HC | 51c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Froelunda HC | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Timraa | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Timraa | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Timraa | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Timraa | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Timraa | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Timraa | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Timraa | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Timraa | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Timraa | 49c | 25.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Timraa | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…4d2fbacked Froelunda HC | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.