Olympics · resolved market
Will Jonna Sundling (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Cross Country Sprint Classic at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dc11403765f70ae28847aa70c2b32900474cdb7d4992a5fbaaaa89035e6e9b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,748$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8348…de9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 49c | 274$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes | 45c | 257.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed No | 55c | 150.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 55c | 106.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 43c | 105.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 56c | 63.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 59.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…5348backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8306…65f9backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7c…dd40backed Yes | 51c | 38.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…f9f6backed Yes | 54c | 35.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 43c | 32.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 53c | 25.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 59c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jonna Sundling (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Cross Country Sprint Classic at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Jasmi Joensuu (FIN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Cross Country Sprint Classic at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Kristine Stavaas Skistad (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Cross Country Sprint Classic at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Linn Svahn (SWE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Women's Cross Country Sprint Classic at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.