MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dc5640808daff3e6f04b4a386f5f40cc8a2c093b3597b26fa618e768ba9e32a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.99 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 3,437$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.85 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 2,120$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.8 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 2,116$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 1,600$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,500$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 1,367$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.14 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 1,310$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.15 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 700$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.38 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 640.59$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.11 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…e9cdbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 610$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 220.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Boston Red Sox | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 143.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 142$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 94.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.