Tennis · resolved market
ITF Rochester: Axel Nefve vs Nathan Cox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dcb28984a3b4c1417ba0f364fc8a3e7ed7fa8131544f1ec83b7cfe0f873767a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Axel Nefveof Axel Nefve, Nathan Cox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507c…85efbacked Nathan Cox | 44c | 18,196$8,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,013.26 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Axel Nefve | 54c | 13,296$7,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,141.86 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Axel Nefve | 63c | 4,945$3,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.87 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Nathan Cox | 34c | 335.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Axel Nefve | 66c | 322.85$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Axel Nefve | 57c | 170.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Nathan Cox | 38c | 160.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Nathan Cox | 35c | 155.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Nathan Cox | 36c | 108.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Nathan Cox | 40c | 100.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…140dbacked Axel Nefve | 55c | 79.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Axel Nefve | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nathan Cox | 27c | 55.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed Axel Nefve | 61c | 55.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nathan Cox | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…2c2cbacked Nathan Cox | 34c | 47.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nathan Cox | 48c | 30.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Axel Nefve | 64c | 28.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Axel Nefve | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Axel Nefve | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Axel Nefve | 57c | 24.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Axel Nefve | 66c | 23.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 193 | 49.7%96 W · 97 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Nathan Cox | 52c | 23.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.