Fifa International · resolved market
Will Norway vs. New Zealand end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3109a442525536445c30eabc39409e1119ddcf0c99548583392e19cb2f5478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5218…712bbacked Yes | 74c | 4,052$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 32c | 3,356$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.95 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…87ebbacked Yes | 61c | 2,046$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 1,208$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.64 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…1930backed Yes | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 34c | 654.44$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.44 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 27c | 606.76$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.78 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6862…6937backed Yes | 17c | 572.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 18c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…7534backed Yes | 18c | 196.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…48cfbacked Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 64c | 144.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 144.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.65 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 109.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…cb74backed Yes | 58c | 84.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 33c | 68.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd906…428dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…9200backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 224 | 66.1%148 W · 76 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…35e5backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…3f5fbacked No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…405fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 67c | 17.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway vs. New Zealand end in a draw?this page
- Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Norway win on 2025-10-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.