Fifa International · resolved market
Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b7d436e6e9628f7b7acb9624e5e51939714937b40ea8fc7bd0944ab29910c7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 12c | 2,119$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,127$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 774$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.64 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 9c | 722.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…87ebbacked Yes | 43c | 702.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 9c | 689.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 10c | 650$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc7…cf36backed No | 61c | 632.79$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Yes | 40c | 448.97$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 10c | 400.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…c9d9backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…7534backed Yes | 12c | 372.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 316.01$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.74 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc07…a946backed Yes | 41c | 306.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 12c | 306$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 143 | 23.8%34 W · 109 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 11c | 233.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…8e0ebacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…cb74backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…7b7cbacked Yes | 14c | 205.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…8d20backed Yes | 11c | 165.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…aeb5backed Yes | 40c | 89.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 83.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…9af9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9a…2df3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New Zealand win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will Norway vs. New Zealand end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Norway win on 2025-10-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.