Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Utrecht vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e32d37525ad656a507fbec2657fdc408a7438bbff19f331a85da2300eb9a923
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 29c | 3,373$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.94 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 2,536$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.89 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 64c | 1,802$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.82 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 1,693$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.46 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 25c | 1,290$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.45 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 39c | 1,009$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.73 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 31c | 726.82$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.46 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 67c | 565.58$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.58 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 25c | 416.27$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed Yes | 26c | 388$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 260.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…8d99backed Yes | 60c | 233.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Yes | 27c | 231$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 229$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…af75backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 60c | 220$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 51c | 218.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 186.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…cb04backed Yes | 14c | 138.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…2b3abacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…1a41backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 74c | 124.85$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 25c | 119.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…c379backed Yes | 72c | 110.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 76c | 84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 61c | 82.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Yes | 60c | 66.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9af4…c6ddbacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Yes | 25c | 53.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 43c | 43.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 74c | 41.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 69c | 26.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Utrecht vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.