Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1330fabdc33128c20a6d13555b032830618770eb72b1c7c890a41a4c7f8b7b36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 9c | 5,778$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.4 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 2,050$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 1,937$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.07 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…35f8backed Yes | 20c | 1,504$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked Yes | 7c | 1,130$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 17c | 855.66$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…53cabacked Yes | 2c | 799.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 80c | 779.54$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.35 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 16c | 682.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 675$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.12 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 19c | 370.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Yes | 15c | 308.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…28febacked Yes | 20c | 275$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed No | 80c | 244.74$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +326.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742d…66b0backed Yes | 12c | 158.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d6…ec92backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 80c | 117.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…3ad4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…c63bbacked Yes | 21c | 98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…1a41backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…c365backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 20c | 51.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…95c0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…5524backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 75cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will FC Utrecht vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.