Champions League · resolved market
KKS Lech Poznań leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e4e52294054188934cf49061a89dcc83389d92d7df76fc26db54a09a00f124f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 66c | 736.99$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.45 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Yes | 31c | 699.93$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 238.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 58c | 130.38$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 113.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 34c | 106.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 66c | 69.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 39c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 42c | 63.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 67c | 36.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 29.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 71c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.