Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7855da39352db0de50adaa842a8b9b642169172b433cceded370c70daf80eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 1c | 3,504$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 20c | 390.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 6c | 365.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 17c | 233.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 215.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.58 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 78c | 197.84$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 162.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 16c | 155$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.45 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 50c | 141.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 118.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 109.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 106$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 94.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 20c | 92.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 18c | 77.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 73.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 73.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 69.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 64.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 68c | 61.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b0…f7f2backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 29c | 50.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 37c | 48.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 46.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0663…2c70backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 36.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ee…53b4backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 52c | 32.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 30.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 29.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 55c | 29.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 27.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 52c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8b…585cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.