Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7fd0c55bf6345944b32d8c93f06adfd31287f369fb720862f0f6645e696b3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2f7…9939backed No | 2c | 2,088$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 674.93$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 5c | 571.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 22c | 490.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 51c | 353.57$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.47 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 5c | 324.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 310.16$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 80c | 215.71$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 212.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 70c | 195.82$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 190.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.83 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 188.18$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 72c | 183$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 72c | 172.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 70c | 164.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 156.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 74c | 143.27$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 115.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 107$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 71c | 100.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 34c | 98.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 56c | 97.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 49c | 93.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 24c | 87.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 80c | 86.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 86.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 80.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 48c | 72.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 67.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 19c | 67.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 62c | 62.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 60.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 47c | 60.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed Yes | 61c | 57.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 40c | 55.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 45c | 54.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 53.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 74c | 52.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 77c | 50.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 22c | 49.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…4447backed No | 27c | 48.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 48.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 55c | 47.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 29c | 46.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 68c | 42.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 34c | 42.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 30c | 39.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 47c | 37.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed Yes | 73c | 33.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…05a3backed No | 64c | 32.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 31.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…6616backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 78c | 29.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 72c | 29.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 71c | 28.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 27.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 78c | 19.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 75c | 19.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 65c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 78c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 67c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 77c | 13.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.