Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e85ada7801fd407b501a077ab7a44946cb1114956ca999e77c7dcf93210f59e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 450$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 53c | 360.91$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 310.05$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 281.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 264.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 10c | 262.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 210.69$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 178.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 165.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 34c | 149.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 149.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 147.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 121.55$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 102.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 46c | 97.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 90.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 59c | 84.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 57c | 80.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 77.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 31c | 73.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 50c | 73.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 70.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 49c | 61.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 71c | 54.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 29c | 46.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 42.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 37c | 39.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 43c | 39.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 68c | 33.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Yes | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 53c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 80c | 14.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.