Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e86f81e46eec77e17bc5d93d742ce6ab72b64836f2c5291b2b1d9bef0680f13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Jodar, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Jodar | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.96 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…c809backed Jodar | 47c | 2,146$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Shapovalov | 53c | 1,785$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.07 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Shapovalov | 55c | 1,123$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.08 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Shapovalov | 55c | 882.83$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.28 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Shapovalov | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…4822backed Jodar | 49c | 501.46$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…6f91backed Shapovalov | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Shapovalov | 55c | 229.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Jodar | 46c | 212.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 494 | 47.2%233 W · 261 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Shapovalov | 53c | 158.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Jodar | 47c | 156.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…1256backed Jodar | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 260 | 43.8%114 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Shapovalov | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Shapovalov | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Shapovalov | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Shapovalov | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Shapovalov | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Shapovalov | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shapovalov | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Shapovalov | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…60a2backed Shapovalov | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Denis ShapovalovRafael Jodar won
- Rafael Jodar vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs ShapovalovJodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.