Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Idaho Vandals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ebe6bb9dff3d3ade9789710db14598df3b49a511a4e91775187ac0e45962a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho Vandalsof Sacramento State Hornets, Idaho Vandals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,399 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x691a…d113backed Sacramento State Hornets | 6c | 9,996$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.73 | 220 | 43.2%95 W · 125 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Idaho Vandals | 73c | 2,314$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.76 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 2,041$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.97 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 27c | 1,882$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.27 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 27c | 1,861$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.47 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 28c | 1,801$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.52 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 28c | 1,700$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Idaho Vandals | 79c | 1,525$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.46 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Sacramento State Hornets | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4d…8e7ebacked Idaho Vandals | 71c | 604.2$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.22 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Idaho Vandals | 72c | 496.47$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.17 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Idaho Vandals | 72c | 426.26$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho Vandals | 71c | 424.37$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 29c | 397.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Idaho Vandals | 72c | 380.72$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 323$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Idaho Vandals | 72c | 272.53$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 379 | 47.8%181 W · 198 L | -26.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed Idaho Vandals | 72c | 199.29$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sacramento State Hornets | 28c | 198.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Sacramento State Hornets | 28c | 187.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Sacramento State Hornets | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 244 | 32%78 W · 166 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Idaho Vandals | 72c | 137.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…2711backed Idaho Vandals | 71c | 102.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Sacramento State Hornets | 29c | 90.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 80.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…5ee6backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 68.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 19c | 65.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…a7b8backed Idaho Vandals | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Idaho Vandals | 71c | 48.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 30.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Idaho Vandals | 71c | 23.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff37…1d94backed Idaho Vandals | 73c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Idaho Vandals | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sacramento State Hornets vs. Idaho Vandalsthis page
- Spread: Idaho Vandals (-5.5)Idaho Vandals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.