Middle East · resolved market
Iran response to Israel by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ece049871ed71da5cc344a1117c6e5095d23ac33b1844e3ee4c9ab4741c3bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc701…920ebacked No | 2c | 5,597$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 8c | 1,705$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.94 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 63c | 1,668$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 12c | 1,199$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…0748backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b4…5b68backed Yes | 42c | 556.75$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…d48ebacked Yes | 47c | 527$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fc…cff4backed Yes | 46c | 439.38$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 35c | 312.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 46c | 221.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.07 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 62c | 214.54$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked Yes | 10c | 195.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 32c | 168.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fd…71c2backed Yes | 54c | 162.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 60c | 149.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c45…9c1dbacked No | 60c | 115.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…2b11backed No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 56c | 89.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…385bbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…81abbacked Yes | 44c | 31.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010e…aef7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efe…ea7ebacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…281dbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 75c | 23.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.