NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Bulls
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ed1f79347faf23ba31eac156bfc87e7117abde7d47a2f1b3befd7cd9e6a0915
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Magic, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Magic | 52c | 4,236$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.4 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Bulls | 28c | 3,214$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314.49 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Bulls | 56c | 2,308$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.26 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Bulls | 36c | 1,726$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.66 | 531 | 34.7%184 W · 347 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Bulls | 12c | 1,390$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.5 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked Magic | 26c | 1,300$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Magic | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 270 | 41.5%112 W · 158 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…681abacked Magic | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Magic | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Bulls | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.99 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…53ddbacked Bulls | 34c | 979.41$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.41 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Magic | 67c | 676.72$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.41 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Magic | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Bulls | 50c | 414.77$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.91 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Magic | 45c | 350$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 191 | 37.7%72 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Bulls | 35c | 314.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.72 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Bulls | 69c | 260.54$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 238 | 33.2%79 W · 159 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…7a25backed Bulls | 50c | 225.34$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…970ebacked Magic | 74c | 212.61$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bulls | 34c | 199.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.95 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Bulls | 33c | 199.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…9365backed Bulls | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked Magic | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Magic | 54c | 138.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…be38backed Bulls | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Magic | 12c | 131$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Magic | 36c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Bulls | 34c | 119.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed Bulls | 50c | 118.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a0…9dedbacked Bulls | 62c | 114.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Bulls | 45c | 107$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Magic | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Magic | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d3…7a61backed Magic | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Magic | 77c | 87.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…6159backed Magic | 67c | 77.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Magic | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe1…7a5bbacked Magic | 66c | 60.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Bulls | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Magic | 66c | 45.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Magic | 64c | 43.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Bulls | 36c | 43.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Bulls | 35c | 38.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked Bulls | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…9897backed Magic | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…f3edbacked Magic | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Magic | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Magic | 67c | 16.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.