Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ed70bc4c8eaa74c3e994c5fde7c1da3f9298f1f93d1c6ca9b71c962cf9c12d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9e6…025bbacked Over | 68c | 45,554$30,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,788.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 24,924$8,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,038.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 34c | 10,119$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.7 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 39c | 8,732$3,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,436.32 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 36c | 4,330$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.35 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 34c | 2,812$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.08 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 61c | 2,200$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 65c | 1,385$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.62 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Under | 2c | 1,300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 65c | 692.31$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.31 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Under | 32c | 524.63$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 64c | 302.37$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 65c | 170.77$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 36c | 152$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 63c | 112.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 36c | 51.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Over | 65c | 46.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Over | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 32c | 41.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Over | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Over | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Under | 35c | 33.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Over | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356d…0eccbacked Over | 64c | 21.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 64c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.