Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fab5cf396efa504935b69b8eac3d1309d494005959066e4cd85fca3f45cf8ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 35c | 3,353$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,179.2 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hamburger SV | 48c | 2,375$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.97 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hamburger SV | 65c | 1,319$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.78 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Hamburger SV | 35c | 881.19$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.2 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Hamburger SV | 65c | 718.51$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.03 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 33c | 600$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 71c | 409.74$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Hamburger SV | 47c | 221.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hamburger SV | 65c | 212.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.95 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f56…f93cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 33c | 178.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 35c | 169.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Hamburger SV | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Hamburger SV | 29c | 92.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Hamburger SV | 66c | 64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34c | 58.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 76c | 43.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Hamburger SV | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Hamburger SV | 65c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)this page
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.