Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eeaa55d59ed1fb1be1314be228b7d029e74411a9da8c2f7c811c4cfb6d1295c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona Wildcats, UCF Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,791 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed UCF Knights | 52c | 571.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.56 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Arizona Wildcats | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed UCF Knights | 24c | 398.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 330.42$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed UCF Knights | 53c | 261.85$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Wildcats | 74c | 226.42$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arizona Wildcats | 48c | 218.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed UCF Knights | 52c | 168.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 152.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 123.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked UCF Knights | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Wildcats | 58c | 110.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked UCF Knights | 52c | 103.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed UCF Knights | 63c | 100.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked UCF Knights | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed UCF Knights | 54c | 95.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UCF Knights | 51c | 61.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed UCF Knights | 52c | 59.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…9d70backed UCF Knights | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…080dbacked Arizona Wildcats | 77c | 49.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +827.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed UCF Knights | 59c | 42.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 36.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked UCF Knights | 42c | 26.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked UCF Knights | 44c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Arizona Wildcats | 46c | 23.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Wildcats | 61c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed Arizona Wildcats | 56c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-16.5)this page
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-15.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- UCF Knights vs. Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats won
- UCF Knights vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 159.5Under won
- UCF Knights vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 160.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.