Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9767b6e50f88e3f869e055d2f9352d73da109e317d4a5b8d98457edaf05ac559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona Wildcats, UCF Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,173 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Wildcats | 54c | 656.6$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.59 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed UCF Knights | 46c | 552.05$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.78 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed UCF Knights | 46c | 392.35$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.89 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 365.81$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.48 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked UCF Knights | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 40.7%92 W · 134 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Arizona Wildcats | 53c | 133$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed UCF Knights | 47c | 121.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Arizona Wildcats | 55c | 111.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Arizona Wildcats | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arizona Wildcats | 54c | 92.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked UCF Knights | 47c | 89.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed UCF Knights | 49c | 75.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…648fbacked Arizona Wildcats | 52c | 63.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed UCF Knights | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Arizona Wildcats | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked UCF Knights | 48c | 37.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arizona Wildcats | 51c | 36.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Arizona Wildcats | 53c | 19.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-15.5)this page
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-16.5)Arizona Wildcats won
- UCF Knights vs. Arizona WildcatsArizona Wildcats won
- UCF Knights vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 159.5Under won
- UCF Knights vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 160.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.