Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ef400d54e427464bddee131c4a12eb7b3bc03088b0570999d8beb3fbb31fee2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 1,083$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.2 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 23c | 999.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 41c | 705.8$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 77c | 639.1$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.15 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 635.77$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.39 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 32c | 431.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 418.1$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 246.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 231.46$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 189.44$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 159.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.47 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 76c | 146.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 78c | 130.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 129.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 77c | 115.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 79c | 112.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 79c | 112.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 106.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 79c | 102.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…62cebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 61c | 97.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 55c | 70.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 28c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 77c | 63.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 62c | 46.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 62c | 42.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 41c | 42.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…2e4dbacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Over | 61c | 35.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Over | 61c | 35.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 61c | 32.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 61c | 32.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…7ae8backed Over | 62c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 59c | 25.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…a279backed Over | 59c | 25.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 59c | 24.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Over | 62c | 23.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 59c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 59c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 59c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 60c | 17.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Over | 60c | 17.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Over | 60c | 17.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 77c | 14.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.