Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x202ed1cfe1dc28e3c58e2a0da93752f3331270cd24898510572c3a355a68e65d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 346.8$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.32 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 52c | 280.15$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.68 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Under | 52c | 215.79$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 205.87$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 35c | 96.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 23c | 95.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 51c | 91.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 75c | 78.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Over | 13c | 76.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 49c | 73.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 36.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 30c | 35.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 31.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…a2c0backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 49c | 26.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 49c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.