Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f0461ccbae2b7793a1bbb4d86802a5eabbb93057e3124ba82df1a3cddba607c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,986 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 73c | 4,772$3,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 4,076$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.44 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 23c | 2,902$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.27 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 80c | 1,600$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 34c | 1,588$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.2 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 669.74$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.45 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Yes | 77c | 584.03$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 31c | 578.48$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked Yes | 79c | 569.89$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 548.4$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.65 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 20c | 419.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 31c | 362.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 64c | 308.62$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 28c | 305.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.87 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…3224backed No | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +183.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed No | 18c | 299.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed No | 65c | 260.53$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 28c | 212.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 68c | 181.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 28c | 141$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 52c | 104.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 63c | 68.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 39c | 66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 51c | 62.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 65c | 49.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 65c | 42.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Yes | 27c | 41.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 70c | 32.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Yes | 49c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7df…fb74backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 22.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 63c | 19.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…b79abacked No | 79c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.