Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Campos do Jordão 2 Women: Natalia Sousa Salazar vs Maria Fernanda Lopes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f0f2674e7c215a88ad675e5adf1a46963d26090bb968781f17d561d818ef62d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natalia Sousa Salazarof Natalia Sousa Salazar, Maria Fernanda Lopes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Maria Fernanda Lopes | 13c | 740.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Maria Fernanda Lopes | 9c | 297.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Natalia Sousa Salazar | 54c | 289.42$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 654 | 37.5%245 W · 409 L | -33.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Maria Fernanda Lopes | 65c | 245.75$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 3,798 | 54.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L | +111.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Natalia Sousa Salazar | 80c | 240$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 792 | 38.3%303 W · 489 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Maria Fernanda Lopes | 42c | 166.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Natalia Sousa Salazar | 79c | 163.09$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d827backed Maria Fernanda Lopes | 62c | 155$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Maria Fernanda Lopes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Maria Fernanda Lopes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,456 | 45.1%656 W · 800 L | +42.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Maria Fernanda Lopes | 47c | 92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 375 | 58.1%218 W · 157 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Maria Fernanda Lopes | 62c | 61.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Natalia Sousa Salazar | 79c | 57.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7618…24c6backed Natalia Sousa Salazar | 54c | 55.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Maria Fernanda Lopes | 56c | 50.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Natalia Sousa Salazar | 44c | 50.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Natalia Sousa Salazar | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Natalia Sousa Salazar | 56c | 45.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,008 | 57.7%582 W · 426 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f1…28d4backed Natalia Sousa Salazar | 42c | 43.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Maria Fernanda Lopes | 54c | 32.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -10.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Natalia Sousa Salazar | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maria Fernanda Lopes | 50c | 31.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…a2adbacked Maria Fernanda Lopes | 48c | 29.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…c148backed Maria Fernanda Lopes | 56c | 24.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Maria Fernanda Lopes | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 281 | 68.7%193 W · 88 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Maria Fernanda Lopes | 55c | 19.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 911 | 63.9%582 W · 329 L | +66.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.