MLB · resolved market
Spread: Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f287484f9e89961d97a2d8a52ad7c8149eedcf982d55e38b2c79ccc9b5e0881
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Phillies, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa983…46a3backed Mets | 64c | 4,800$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -16.4wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Phillies | 36c | 4,687$1,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,007.72 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mets | 10c | 2,361$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.04 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Phillies | 36c | 398.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Mets | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mets | 62c | 259.78$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Mets | 65c | 182$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Phillies | 35c | 171$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Phillies | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Phillies | 36c | 131.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Phillies | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Phillies | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Mets | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Phillies | 41c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Mets | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Mets vs. PhilliesPhillies won
- Mets vs. Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- NRFI: Mets vs. PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.