Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon beat Fenerbahce?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f2979122986ca69d7a479fcba748817a9f76c5e5aac6bf9eae7f910fa59a620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 1,041$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.4 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 22c | 797.08$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.82 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 70c | 642.99$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.97 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…09fdbacked Yes | 31c | 627.58$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 71c | 550$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Yes | 30c | 396.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 70c | 370.1$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked No | 71c | 339.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267a…425dbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 18c | 256.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Yes | 29c | 254.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 28c | 232.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6d…f360backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 28c | 197.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 27c | 113.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…d871backed Yes | 26c | 108.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…b909backed Yes | 16c | 90.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…1fcfbacked Yes | 27c | 62.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa48…5237backed Yes | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…5cdbbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…16bebacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon beat Fenerbahce?this page
- Will Fenerbahce beat Lyon?No won
- Will the match between Fenerbahce and Lyon end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.