Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahce beat Lyon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fce2b7d9309d7c5da017c95a4c3270868ccc650af968412ce64193be18910ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffd6…9b1cbacked No | 54c | 39,027$21,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,950.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 46c | 20,575$9,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,458.85 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes | 46c | 16,995$7,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,797.75 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…24d0backed Yes | 54c | 4,545$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 45c | 3,327$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824.34 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 57c | 2,968$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.19 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950c…76f2backed Yes | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 40c | 2,143$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.49 | 121 | 66.9%81 W · 40 L | +17.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…11bfbacked No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…366bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 46c | 691.87$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.64 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 51c | 491.13$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.15 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 53c | 380$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.07 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 53c | 375.89$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…8f78backed Yes | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…7d08backed Yes | 41c | 73.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe815…93f4backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 50c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd64b…c3cdbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 44c | 41.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8c…3bd0backed No | 57c | 41.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…f8cfbacked No | 54c | 38.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe1…4a08backed Yes | 44c | 38.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…0fb6backed No | 56c | 33.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…e87fbacked Yes | 45c | 32.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…4128backed No | 61c | 31.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbac…3b5abacked Yes | 41c | 31.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b4…0df5backed No | 58c | 31.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…8a70backed No | 55c | 30.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…5087backed No | 55c | 29.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb290…461bbacked Yes | 49c | 25.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd2…e326backed No | 51c | 25.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af7…b422backed No | 55c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahce beat Lyon?this page
- Will Lyon beat Fenerbahce?No won
- Will the match between Fenerbahce and Lyon end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.