Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f3547d1b9b5bdda1a4eb440a47e711e10e500deccefa03a35be1cfeca738270
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,520$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 394.25$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed Yes | 32c | 359.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 7c | 312.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 57c | 304.63$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.88 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 299.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 32c | 238.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 34c | 205.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 23c | 202.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 39c | 166.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…e964backed Yes | 26c | 150.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 148.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 80c | 137.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 132.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed Yes | 22c | 132.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 121.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.85 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 21c | 98.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 50c | 97.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 26c | 93.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 24c | 77.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 68.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 70c | 66.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 65.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 31c | 63.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 63.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 18c | 57.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 38c | 55.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…742dbacked No | 79c | 54.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed No | 80c | 52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 23c | 50.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 49.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed No | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 45.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…85c1backed Yes | 66c | 32.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 38c | 32.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked Yes | 58c | 29.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 69c | 27.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 58c | 22.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e6…b5f3backed No | 79c | 20.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…a708backed No | 79c | 17.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…6a90backed Yes | 76c | 15.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.