Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f5af3ba35c5bb3e98ad05dc7c8e77bf05054f11788b8b24b48802e197f14231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 67c | 1,024$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.29 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed Yes | 9c | 335.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.39 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 43c | 321.07$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 232.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 225.11$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.11 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 31c | 211.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…2ce9backed Yes | 14c | 159.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 158.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 34c | 142.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 29c | 140.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 135$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 15c | 115.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.29 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 24c | 110.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 38c | 108.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 104$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 43c | 98.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 61c | 98.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 98.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 38c | 92.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 14c | 91.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 36c | 85.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 77.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 62c | 76.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 38c | 73.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 21c | 72.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 71.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 71.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 68.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 59.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 56.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 50c | 55.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 53.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 43.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 43.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 40.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 44c | 39.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 40c | 37.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed Yes | 42c | 33.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…4407backed No | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 66c | 30.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 59c | 30.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 28.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 48c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…c7fabacked Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 23.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdf39…b050backed No | 58c | 22.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 22.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 63c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.