Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67d1cf21b9dfb40ea69016a8250e9742980760514dc3a5048891015bd3e1c7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 61c | 271.88$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 34c | 214.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 163.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 135$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 79c | 125.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 36c | 106.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 50c | 100.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 20c | 97.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 21c | 92.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 75.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 73.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 72.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 71.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 18c | 69.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 65.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 57.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 51c | 55.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 80c | 55.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 52.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 48.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 35c | 47.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 30c | 47.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 45.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 80c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 67c | 33.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 33.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 32.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 41c | 31.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 40c | 30.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 74c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked No | 69c | 22.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 70c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.