Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f7a4f81bbba966b4b5e71760646b9754fb6fea09312fb5f00daa5356a063048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,840$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 32c | 483.24$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.94 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 361.37$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 348.58$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 296.07$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 252.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.55 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 27c | 198.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 68c | 193.6$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 168.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 144.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed Yes | 22c | 143.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 127.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 59c | 119.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 105.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 99.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 94.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 87.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 75c | 78.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 71c | 78.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 60c | 77.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 62c | 75.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 72c | 68.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 26c | 66.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 79c | 65.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 75c | 65.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 31c | 62.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 71c | 59.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 52.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…1a00backed Yes | 29c | 49.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 49.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 48.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…17cbbacked No | 60c | 44.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 64c | 44.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 65c | 43.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 68c | 43.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 74c | 42.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 40.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 54c | 38.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 36c | 38.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 49c | 37.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 44c | 37.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 31c | 37.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 56c | 33.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…e43bbacked Yes | 44c | 32.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 48c | 31.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 76c | 30.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 66c | 29.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 29.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 45c | 29.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 59c | 27.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 74c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 25.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 68c | 23.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 21.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…9b20backed No | 73c | 21.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 65c | 20.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 74c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…abe7backed No | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…7aa0backed No | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed No | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 54c | 18.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…7347backed No | 77c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 73c | 14.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.