Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f880fb74fb86fc5323dc90bba529e835bc3acc528269a0b18715f8205b7ce85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 68c | 521.57$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.67 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 34c | 395.32$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.88 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 65c | 306.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.54 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 277$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.97 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 78c | 240.95$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 32c | 222.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.12 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 184.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 67c | 176.7$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.86 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 22c | 162.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 152.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 66c | 117.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 111.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 47c | 105.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 50c | 100.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 73c | 95.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 70c | 78.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 72.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 30c | 72.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 66c | 71.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…7628backed No | 15c | 69.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 38c | 68.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 38c | 67.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 68c | 67.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 66.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…d655backed Yes | 72c | 60.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 68c | 51.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 50.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 37c | 48.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 41.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 26c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 32c | 40.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 51c | 40.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 39.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 76c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 38.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 47c | 36.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 50c | 34.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 45c | 31.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 37c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 69c | 30.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…bd14backed No | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 54c | 26.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 25.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 51c | 25.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 54c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 61c | 20.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 73c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.