Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f886c1c5ba06b8fc412dee52a1febb5daeed59bec644e503d3bd2ad03af733b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 413.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 26c | 315.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 29c | 291.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.2 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 18c | 253.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.84 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 62c | 231.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 67c | 179.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 35c | 142.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 142.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…79f2backed Yes | 77c | 137.93$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 130.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 78c | 128.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 119$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 115.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 107.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 66c | 105.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 54c | 97.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 86.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 78.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 74.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 71.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 63c | 63.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 32c | 62.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 60.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 56.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked Yes | 62c | 53.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 43c | 50.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 31c | 48.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 48.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 66c | 44.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 42.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 59c | 42.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 64c | 37.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 36c | 37.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 54c | 36.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bc…ba6ebacked Yes | 57c | 34.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 70c | 32.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 31.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 58c | 29.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 55c | 27.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 62c | 27.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 69c | 27.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 24.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 24.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…a530backed Yes | 72c | 23.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 60c | 22.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 21.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 67c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 59c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…d53dbacked No | 64c | 17.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 75c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 69c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.