Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb791e61e86a6b657f6f9a42524eabd6a708913ac3b2e51d997052fc42a0930e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 463.76$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 363.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.4 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 63c | 296.75$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.25 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 264.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 192.57$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 153.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 139.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 9c | 135.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 16c | 130.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.87 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 114.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…6f6cbacked Yes | 12c | 114$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 20c | 111.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 43c | 107.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 40c | 92.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 28c | 79.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked No | 71c | 77.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 73.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 72.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 18c | 62.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…28c3backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 63c | 56.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 47.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 47.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 52c | 45.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 37.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 39c | 36.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 56c | 36.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 55c | 30.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 47c | 28.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 46c | 28.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 62c | 24.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 44c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 20.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.