Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fa5791a07ebc1fe1855bcdebd0784c6594d93c6d3478b9ad5ad135402a870f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 2,469$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,179.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 2,197$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 557.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 326.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 15c | 297.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.87 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 246.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 17c | 229.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.34 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 23c | 222.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 19c | 203.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 185.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 172.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 167.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 129.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 11c | 121.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 77c | 115.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 112.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 15c | 86.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 51c | 77.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd247…792abacked Yes | 70c | 76.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 58.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 38c | 56.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 56.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 54.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 40.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 58c | 33.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 33.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes | 39c | 27.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…b8d1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 70c | 24.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 76c | 19.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or below on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 42°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 43°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.