Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or below on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc728dc9e758b519eab522166f71db54d7d6cb474025464e166115d6d0ed8cd0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 37c | 1,800$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.3 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 1,051$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 842.62$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 731.97$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 712.29$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.37 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 470.77$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 55c | 400$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.09 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 351.16$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 16c | 335.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 306.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 62c | 267$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 250.37$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 16c | 249.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 246.63$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 244.46$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 231.46$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 218.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 183.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 151$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 148$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 143.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 140.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 31c | 132$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 128.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 112.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 46c | 109.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 105.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 101.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 83.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 58.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 41c | 52.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 50.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 24c | 48.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 46.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 44.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 44.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 32c | 41.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x601c…0dc6backed Yes | 33c | 39.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 31.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 68c | 31.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4080…4f50backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 21.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…fb69backed No | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 77c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or below on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 42°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 43°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.