Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb3dbea776b29b01613ea4f70131eab5b7ec0acd54523372fb5170aeef3b0c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 20c | 4,475$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.38 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…abb5backed No | 77c | 1,655$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed No | 77c | 1,368$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 76c | 1,137$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.82 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 24c | 1,111$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.52 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 1,106$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.28 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…c4d1backed No | 77c | 418$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 76c | 381.32$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 24c | 122.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 24c | 121.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 115$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 112.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Yes | 23c | 43.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 76c | 24.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…be73backed No | 76c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-17?Yes won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.