Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd97e0d640a89f0df58c36609b65925ed43ca5e4355c92d4655b0f58c654c0dbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 60c | 15,000$8,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,050 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 40c | 9,773$3,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,908.24 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 72c | 8,338$6,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.56 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 42c | 4,479$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.32 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 26c | 3,561$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.82 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…4867backed Yes | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…7d5cbacked Yes | 43c | 2,278$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,273$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked No | 58c | 2,081$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.06 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 39c | 1,893$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 78c | 1,771$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.34 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 1,624$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.7 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 57c | 1,587$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.54 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 45c | 1,551$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.12 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 78c | 1,400$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 58c | 1,200$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 75c | 1,059$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.79 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…2e81backed Yes | 24c | 1,025$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed No | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 25c | 771.4$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.65 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 56c | 667$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.28 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 78c | 502.23$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.05 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Yes | 21c | 477$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 70c | 453.35$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.13 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 436$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.87 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 78c | 421.5$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 58c | 420.69$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 42c | 348.83$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.51 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed No | 57c | 306.24$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 18c | 296.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 280.81$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 16c | 234.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 21c | 227.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 80c | 207.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 21c | 202.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 70c | 189.55$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 174$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 75c | 136.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 60c | 127.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 24c | 123.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 22c | 110.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed No | 57c | 86.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 85.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…e107backed Yes | 34c | 73.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed No | 59c | 61.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 57.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Yes | 44c | 51.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 50.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…9d48backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 61c | 47.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 67c | 37.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 39c | 34.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 75c | 33.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Yes | 42c | 26.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 78c | 23.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…af4cbacked No | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 15.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.