Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe06baa1b499de289604265e6886221bc480112822d25e139389fd4c96d33a5a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 55c | 30,000$16,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,499.97 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 45c | 14,205$6,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,392.16 | 480 | 30.6%147 W · 333 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 36c | 9,172$3,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,909.23 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 5,976$4,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,113.29 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…4867backed No | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 50c | 1,927$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.29 | 393 | 46.3%182 W · 211 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 45c | 1,522$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 63c | 1,415$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.73 | 1,024 | 44.4%455 W · 569 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 51c | 1,375$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.65 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 54c | 1,218$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.36 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 1,107$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.4 | 352 | 37.2%131 W · 221 L | -11.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 49c | 1,061$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.33 | 731 | 51.7%378 W · 353 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,002$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.89 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 52c | 990.62$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.68 | 450 | 55.3%249 W · 201 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes | 52c | 900$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked No | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 50c | 766.94$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.47 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…056bbacked No | 45c | 621.62$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 46c | 591.56$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.16 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…d93bbacked Yes | 64c | 468.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 50c | 450$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 433 | 45%195 W · 238 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed No | 74c | 449.95$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.96 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 48c | 422.38$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 642 | 43.9%282 W · 360 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 55c | 399.27$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.67 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 59c | 390.12$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 57c | 387.18$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.49 | 412 | 44.4%183 W · 229 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 40c | 341.68$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Yes | 60c | 333.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 49c | 260.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 48c | 244.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 59c | 206.5$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 34c | 171.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x874f…b0a5backed No | 45c | 166.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 39c | 162.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 572 | 51.7%296 W · 276 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 45c | 157$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 55c | 146.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 43c | 124.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 341 | 46%157 W · 184 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 60c | 102.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 44c | 100.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 631 | 52.3%330 W · 301 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9af0…a4d3backed Yes | 56c | 95.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 195 | 58.5%114 W · 81 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 31c | 78.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ba…5038backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05c…64bdbacked Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 57c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Yes | 61c | 59.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 48c | 45.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 166 | 64.5%107 W · 59 L | +29.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…e00fbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 29c | 36.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 402 | 59%237 W · 165 L | +28.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 73c | 29.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 50c | 23.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 514 | 42.2%217 W · 297 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…b39abacked Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 50c | 22.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,691 | 45%761 W · 930 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Yes | 54c | 21.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.