Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd769c3d22fa608c6912438cc6bd8d3ba266aab5ef05fbc5db85149758ad50c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 430.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 77c | 334.67$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 324.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 300.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 277.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 241.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 228.75$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 210.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 209.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 30c | 184.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41bc…e9d2backed Yes | 18c | 176.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 168.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 153.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 144.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 26c | 136.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 15c | 136.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 27c | 128.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e57…ddc3backed No | 79c | 124.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 32c | 116.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 115.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 80c | 106.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed No | 74c | 99.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 80c | 97.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…c55dbacked No | 76c | 96.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 95.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 23c | 92.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 12c | 86.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 34c | 82.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 73c | 65.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 24c | 65.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 64.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 25c | 60.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 32c | 58.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 30c | 57.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 30c | 55.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 77c | 50.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed No | 74c | 48.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 47.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 30c | 47.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 32c | 44.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…7299backed Yes | 34c | 43.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 70c | 42.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 73c | 41.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 28c | 39.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 78c | 37.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 77c | 35.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…3b66backed No | 78c | 35.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 76c | 32.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 79c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f9…c3c4backed Yes | 37c | 30.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 74c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 36c | 28.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 73c | 28.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3b…65f1backed No | 77c | 25.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 72c | 24.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 76c | 20.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…dd84backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…20d5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 66c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…513abacked No | 80c | 14.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.