Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf368c466a62a3cfe0e476696944d1866c73f39a4ce434eb7df023b9c4c489569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 57c | 609$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.83 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 450.46$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d33…aa06backed Yes | 51c | 371.85$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 70c | 335.4$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 308.14$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 14c | 198.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 194.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 58c | 186.22$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 70c | 177.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 165.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 159.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 74c | 157.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 140.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 26c | 131.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 68c | 107.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 55c | 104.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 102.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 59c | 101.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 49c | 100.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 25c | 92.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 51c | 80.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 46c | 70.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 51c | 70.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 69.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked No | 60c | 63.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 47c | 59.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 57.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 64c | 56.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 54c | 53.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 45c | 50.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 80c | 49.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…02c3backed Yes | 58c | 49.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 60c | 49.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 29c | 48.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…5e55backed Yes | 70c | 47.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 49c | 47.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 46c | 46.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 41c | 46.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Yes | 55c | 45.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 43.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 41.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 50c | 39.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 72c | 39.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 62c | 38.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 44c | 36.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 35.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…5ac3backed No | 80c | 35.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…9e11backed Yes | 43c | 33.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Yes | 46c | 30.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 50c | 30.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 50c | 29.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 60c | 29.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 44c | 28.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 46c | 28.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 75c | 27.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5186…2515backed Yes | 43c | 24.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 49c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 64c | 21.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 57c | 20.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 53c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 77c | 20.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 54c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 59c | 18.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…4af7backed No | 61c | 18.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 79c | 13.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.