Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fea17e651806d914f3292cb3ba358026da632a814050772b18b514efde2c1cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 48c | 2,076$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 2,041$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 30c | 524.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 29c | 521.84$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.82 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 71c | 401.1$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.78 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b3…6bfcbacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed No | 39c | 392.31$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…d4e6backed No | 57c | 332.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 306.29$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 166.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 64c | 155.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 36c | 125.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 46c | 115.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed No | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1f27backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-01-17?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.